Friday Morning Update: Early Flood Information And Model Update

On By durangoweatherguy

10/30/26 Friday 5:00 am

Changes:

  • Flood Watch Issued
  • Models continue to speed up the onset of the first batch of precipitation, now expected to arrive tonight and depart Saturday afternoon-Dry for trick-or-treating? Maybe…
  • Models are increasing their forecast for the first batch of precipitation, now expecting 0.50″-0.80″ by Saturday afternoon.
  • The main system is expected to linger until Monday afternoon in the lower and mid-elevations and until Monday night in the higher elevations.
  • Snow levels will be slightly lower tonight and tomorrow than on Sunday, so in some cases, rain on snow, which is not good.
  • Snow levels are finally forecast to drop late Sunday into Monday morning (unless the cold front stalls, which it usually does)

Here is the Excessive Rain Outlook (ERO) from the Weather Prediction Center for Sunday Morning through Monday morning: We don’t often see such a high risk.

Here is a list of the rivers and locations already forecast to be at or above action stage by (or before) Monday; this list will likely get much longer.

San Juan River at Pagosa, Mancos River at Mancos, La Plata River at Hesperus, La Plata River at State line, La Plata River at Farmington, Animas River at Cedar Hill, Animas River at Farmington, Los Pinos near Vallecito, Navajo at Chromo.

I am not going to load the hydrographs yet because it’s all going to change…

Models: From low to high

European

German

WPC: If you look real close, there is a 5.33″ bullseye right over La Platas

UKMET

GFS AI

Canadian

I will be back around 1 pm. Looks like another busy weekend!

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Friday Morning: From Denial To Flood Watch: NWS GJT Plays Catch-Up On Incoming Surge (Again)

On By durangoweatherguy

10/30/26  Friday 4:00 am

The last two days weve heard this:

“Chances for river flooding remains low at this point, as these totals will be spread
over an almost 48 hour period.”  “River flooding continues to look unlikely
at these values spread over 48 hours.”   “River flooding seems unlikely, but localized impacts due to rainfall on saturated soils are expected.”  “While rivers are forecast to remain below action stage, a growing concern lies in the potential for runoff around saturated hillsides in the region.”

Now This:

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
942 PM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

COZ019-021>023-UTZ022-028-029-302100-
/O.NEW.KGJT.FA.A.0011.261101T1200Z-261102T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Southwest San Juan Mountains-Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-
Animas River Basin-San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-La Sal and
Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges-
Including the cities of Pagosa Springs, Silverton, Rico, Cortez,
Mancos, Dolores, Dove Creek, Durango, Bayfield, Ignacio, Blanding,
Oljato-Monument Valley, Goulding, Bluff, Tselakai Dezza, Aneth,
Montezuma Creek, Mexican Hat, Halchita, White Mesa, Monticello, La
Sal, Eastland, Spanish Valley, Fry Canyon, and Canyonlands National
Park
942 PM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...Portions of southwest Colorado, including the following
  areas, Animas River Basin, Four Corners/Upper Dolores River, San
  Juan River Basin and Southwest San Juan Mountains and southeast
  Utah, including the following areas, Canyonlands/Natural Bridges,
  La Sal and Abajo Mountains and Southeast Utah.

* WHEN...From Sunday morning through Monday morning.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
  creeks, streams, recently burned areas, and other low-lying and
  flood-prone locations. Low-water crossings may be flooded. Storm
  drains and ditches may become clogged with debris.

Things are changing quickly while the CBRFC (Colorado Basin River Forecast Center) plays catch up with their river peak and flow forecasts. I will have a more detailed update out soon!

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Thursday Midday Latest & Model Comparisons

On By durangoweatherguy

10/29/26  Thursday

Quick Note: Models show the storm speeding up through the first half, with 0.30″-0.60″ of liquid precipitation by Saturday afternoon.

Conversely, they are slowing the Sunday system; it may be with us most of Monday.

I continue to see high snow levels of 10,000’+ until the last 6 to 10 hours of the storm. That will make for a difficult snow forecast for anyone trying to figure it out.

The latest from NWS

Hydrologic Outlook
COC007-033-067-083-113-UTC037-302100-

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1053 AM MDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Low pressure begins to dig southward from the PACNW on Friday,
tapping into a fetch of Pacific moisture that will evolve into an
atmospheric river streaming into the Desert Southwest this weekend.
Showers and thunderstorms develop on Friday and Saturday across the
region. Lighter rainfall totals Friday and Saturday will reflect,
initially lower, moisture. However, a few thunderstorms could produce
impactful downpours on saturated soils left over from last weekend`s
historic rainfall.

Deeper moisture develops Saturday night and early Sunday. This is
expected to produce heavier and more widespread rainfall across
southeast UT and southwest CO Sunday and Monday, mostly below 10000
feet. While rivers are forecast to remain below action stage, a
growing concern lies in the potential for runoff around saturated
hillsides in the region. This could produce rock, mud, and debris
flows onto roadways, as well as flash flood prone burn scars, washes,
slot canyons, and arroyos. Early estimates predict an area of 1 to 2
inches of new rainfall for portions of southeast UT and southwest CO.

This is a preliminary forecast that hinges on slight shifts in a
strong moisture plume impacting the region. It also attempts to
capture the most statistically likely outcome, despite stronger and
weaker outlier predictions. Outdoor enthusiasts, motorists, and
residents of recent flood impacted areas are encouraged to remain
abreast of the developing forecast in the coming days.

Finally, at least an acknowledgment. But I have seen no models that show only 1-2 inches of rain. Grand Junction NWS is still downplaying the event, saying the rivers will flow below action stage.  Apparently they did not see this:

Keep in mind: bad data in, bad data out, so if they expect this peak with 1-2 inches of rain, what would double do?

I dug deep and found those model runs from before the last event. Overall, the GFS AI and Canadian are very similar to before- remember, those were the most accurate models last time. The similarity ends with the European. I will be watching that closely.

 

Here are some comparison model runs: current vs. last week.

Current GFS AI

Last week GFS AI

 

 

Current Canadian

Last week Canadian

Current European

Last week European

That’s all I have for now. If something changes before the morning, I will jump back on.

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Thursday Morning: Late Update

On By durangoweatherguy

10/29/26 Thursday 5 am

I need some time this morning to reevaluate what we went through at the last event, compare the model runs from before the event, and the delivery duration for total precipitation. So my update will be later today, not out of laziness, but because I’m genuinely concerned for our area.

When I see this, these were the two most accurate models last event.

And this

And then I read this from NWS:

 Deeper moisture arrives Saturday night and will increase the chances
  for impactful precipitation for southwest CO Sunday and
  Monday.

- River flooding seems unlikely, but localized impacts due to
  rainfall on saturated soils are expected.

Then I see this:

I have to be very careful here because my head is about to explode. All of these things cannot be true at once.

So I am forcing myself into a timeout study break to double-check everything. If the NWS thought process is that most of the high-elevation precipitation will be snow, therefore, “flooding seems unlikely”, then we have a whole other set of concerns, like 3+ to 5 feet of snow at Wolf Creek.

Yesterday, I said if the models were as high or higher than this afternoon’s precipitation totals, I would be pressing the panic button. I am there right now, but I need to catch my breath and spend some more time on this.

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Wednesday Afternoon: Concerning-Every Model From This Morning Went Higher

On By durangoweatherguy

10/28/26 Wednesday Noon

The big story is in this post’s title. After the models increased totals overnight, they did it again this morning. Not only for Sunday and Monday, but now for Saturday too; of course, it was right after I said, “I would not be surprised if the Saturday precipitation did not happen.”

I am going to skip the detailed snow-level talk for now. Models are fluctuating those snow levels as they try to anticipate when the cold air will arrive versus the moisture. At a glance, rather than a deep dive, it looks like the snow levels will start high, in the 10,500 to 11,500 range, and drop below pass levels by late Sunday afternoon or evening.

If I were planning to go over the passes Sunday late afternoon through Tuesday morning, I would change my plans. You may not even have a choice, because they may pre-emptively close passes early before it gets bad.

OK, I have talked about the models; now let’s see them

European

European AI

Canadian-these bullseyes in the Canadian and the GFS AI below it are very concerning.

GFS AI “crazy totals”

We are still 4 days out, so I can’t share the shorter-term/higher-resolution models yet. I can add those to the mix tomorrow afternoon.

If, 24 hours from now, the models are this aggressive or higher. I will be pushing the panic button, as I did early on last week.

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Wednesday Morning: Anomalous Runs Or Genuine Concern?

On By durangoweatherguy

10/28/26 Wednesday 5 am (overslept)

Changes:
  • The European is slowly going back to a wetter solution
  • Latest model runs show more of a “direct hit” starting Sunday
  • Models are delaying cold-air infiltration until the moisture is mostly gone on Monday, raising snow levels back to 564 dam (11,000 ft).
  • This would increase high-elevation runoff
  • I am still leaning on Saturday being a non-event, maybe nuisance rain of 0.10″-0.30″

Sounds scary, but this is one model run; it could be anomalous, or it could be a trend. Still a lot of uncertainty, but it’s an eye-opener.

European

European AI

Canadian: I keep referring to the GFS AI and Canadian as having “crazy” totals. Compared to the other models, their totals look crazy, but the Canadian and GFS AI were the most accurate for the last event.

GFS AI

Canadian

Again, don’t panic; be aware. The next two sets of model runs will tell us whether these are anomalous runs or the new trend.

 

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Tuesday Afternoon: Starting To Come Together

On By durangoweatherguy

10/27/26 Tuesday 12:30 pm

Up-to-the-minute changes (subject to more changes, of course)

No precipitation Friday. The first part of the event starts after midnight and before 9 am Saturday. Models depict very, very light precipitation Saturday.  I wouldn’t be surprised at all if this Saturday event doesn’t happen.

Early to mid-morning on Sunday, the moisture plume arrives in our forecast area, with heavy rain and sticky wet snow.

Precipitation continues all day; the snow level steadily drops in the afternoon as the cold front to our northwest filters in. If the models are correct, the snow levels could flirt with 8,000 feet Monday morning before the system moves out.

Here are the latest model runs; it might just be me, but all but one of them look a little more similar.

European

NBM

Euro AI

UKMET

GFS AI (crazy?

We will see what tomorrow brings.

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Tuesday Morning: Model Mayhem

On By durangoweatherguy

10/27/26 Tuesday 4 am

Yesterday morning’s model runs threw a wrench in the whole weekend setup! The European in particular had consistently shown 2″ to 3″ of liquid precipitation for the event, but one complete model run flipped to a solution showing 0.50″ to 1.00″.

This happened Sunday mid-morning as well. Then it flipped back. The other models are split between all-in and expecting less.

There are some wholesale changes in the big picture. Initially, the setup showed the remnants of Vance coming over the border in two batches. The first batch goes through Texas heading into the plains states.

The second batch comes several hours later through Arizona and into our area, bringing precipitation late Friday and early Saturday morning. This batch never really showed high precipitation totals. In those earlier runs, heavier precipitation arrived later Saturday and intensified on Sunday.

Now things have changed; models show the initial moisture batch is struggling to reach far enough north to bring precipitation to our area, and the deeper Pacific tropical airmass is slowing until Sunday, potentially lasting into Monday in some cases.

What does all of this mean? To me, it means we have to wait for better consensus on timing and track.

One the one hand, we are still seeing some models pump out high event totals:

Canadian:

GFS AI

European AI

On the other hand, some of these totals have come down (though some are up since yesterday afternoon, which adds to the confusion).

European (Legacy)

NBM

German

You will notice that the totals on these last 3 models are less than they were 24 hours ago. If we hadn’t experienced the last 2 months of heavy precipitation, we would consider these totals significant, “only 1 to 2 inches.”

So while some of these models have trended lower, Saturday night through Monday still could be a significant event with multiple impacts.

Snow levels will still be around 10,000 feet, and they could drop lower Sunday late or Monday morning. That is still something to be aware of for travel over the passes.

Hopefully, the next batches of model runs over the next 4 to 7 hours will show more consensus, but I am not holding my breath; there are a lot of pieces to this puzzle, and I left out most of those details in this update; too much could change between now and then.

I will be back around 1 pm.

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Monday Morning: Our Next Storm

On By durangoweatherguy

10/26/26 Monday 3:45 am

Overview

Expect nice fall weather through midweek. Flow will shift to the SW on Thursday, with slightly warmer temperatures and increasing humidity levels by Friday.

Upcoming Storm

Yesterday I was so close to talking about next weekend’s storm. I saw 4 very aggressive model runs showing eye-catching rain and snow totals, then I saw one with slightly lower totals than the other 4. So I decided to hold off until this morning.

Yes, snow levels will be lower with this next storm. For now, I am pretty comfortable with snow starting at 9,500-10,000 feet and then lowering through the weekend, perhaps much lower by Monday morning.

Given what the region has experienced, I felt a sense of urgency to share this information. But really, I’ve been hinting about this Halloween Storm for a while.

When I give you hints, it means I am seeing activity I have to keep an eye on, but I am not ready to commit because it is too far out. Fast forward to today, and we’re just a few days away. It’s time to start sharing.

With the last event, the model consensus was locked in on precipitation totals. By the way, the models have consistently underforecasted the highest totals over the last 2 months. That is something to keep in mind when interpreting “crazy” totals.

This system is slightly different than the last few. Here is what is the same: strong low pressure traveling down the coast, picking up tropical moisture to dump over the forecast area over a couple of days as the low pressure tracks across the region.

Here is what is different, and why the models may be struggling a little. There are two sources of tropical moisture. The first is remnants of Hurricane Vance.

The models are not sure how much of that moisture will get wrapped up with the low because, as we have seen, these lows take their time, and as I said the other day, the strengthening deep low-pressure systems don’t care what the models are forecasting; they are going to do what they want.

The other source is a plume of tropical moisture originating east of Hawaii. This plume has some Atmospheric River(esque) attributes. But unlike the mid-winter ARs that usually bury the Sierra and leave us with paltry leftovers, this one is different. This firehouse is pointed northeast right over San Diego. The models think it will take the familiar path directly into our forecast area.

I am going to stop there on the setup. Even I get weather fatigue after a while, so let’s move on to the early model forecasts.

I am going to hold off on projected snow totals for now, likely until Thursday or Friday. That said, many models forecast 1 to 2 feet of snow above 9,500 feet.

The initial storm window is: Onset, late Friday to early Saturday. Departure: Early Monday to early Tuesday. I’ll tighten this up as we get closer.

Here are the liquid equivalent forecasts for this next event; as always, these are subject to change (by a little or by a lot) before it starts. Also, don’t take these as exact forecasts. Look at the highs and the lows and use that as a range.

European

NOAA’s NBM

European AI

A huge smoothing factor with this version of the model. Keep in mind what I said about guidance versus forecast.

AI GFS “crazy” totals.

Canadian

What does this all mean for additional flooding? That is the question. On one hand, it could mean a lot of precipitation falling on already saturated soils. On the other hand, with lower snow levels, runoff from higher elevations may be limited this time.

I know there is a lot of “maybes ” and “potentiallys” in this post. That is normal a few days out.  I am not trying to worry anyone yet. But I don’t want to spring this on everyone without a warning on Thursday or Friday, when the Winter Storm Watches come out for areas over 9,500 feet.

I would rather be wrong and have everyone be aware than wait until I am 100%. If anything changes, I will post again this afternoon.

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Sunday Morning

On By durangoweatherguy

10/25/26 Sunday 4 am-

With the less urgency across the forecast area, I have been looking at long-term model runs.  Very interesting; I have already vaguely referred to next weekend’s storm. I am seeing model consensus on timing, but precipitation totals are all over the map, from significant but manageable to dangerous again.

Speaking of dangerous, I thought Shiprock was bad; it was, but look at Bluff. It has not peaked yet.

Devastating…7 pm peak today at 48.4 feet, with a current observation of 20.39 feet!

While yesterday’s main tropical firehose has shifted east, our local radar shows plenty of lingering wrap-around moisture over the area this morning. Expect scattered showers and mountain mix to linger today before we finally get into a dry window this week.

Our residual moisture will also create its own weather today; it won’t take much to fire up a storm or two (wet likes to stay wet). Models are very conservative with the activity and potential totals through this evening. I won’t rely on them too heavily today.

Local radar (7:15 am) shows these showers already moving up from New Mexico again.

Have a good day. I will be keeping an eye on the situation and post as needed

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